As Democrats make push to flip state Senate, here are the races to watch

WAUWATOSA , Wis. (CBS 58) -- Democrats have officially rolled out their candidate in what projects to be one of the most pivotal races for control of the Wisconsin Senate in 2026.

With six other Democratic state senators at her side Thursday afternoon, State Rep. Robyn Vining (D-Wauwatosa) launched her own Senate campaign at Wisconsin Avenue Park.

Vining will run for the seat currently held by State Sen. Rob Hutton (R-Brookfield). The district spans across several key western suburbs, running from Wauwatosa and West Allis out to Pewaukee.

It is one of the most competitive Senate districts in the state; according to an analysis of recent voting trends by Marquette University research fellow John Johnson, the district has a 51.7% Democratic lean.

Democrats believe they're in position to win at least two Senate seats currently held by Republicans. If they do, Democrats would control a legislative chamber for the first time since 2010.

Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein (D-Middleton) said the party is aiming for even more, regardless of who ends up being on the ballot.

"We're excited to flip the Senate. We're gonna have a trifecta in the Assembly and the governor's race," Hesselbein said. "And we're finally gonna be able to get things done for the very first time in a long time."

Currently, the biggest question in state politics is whether Democratic Gov. Tony Evers will run for a third term. Hesselbein said she expected Evers to make his decision "within the next week and a half."

Vining said she did not believe a lengthy wait for Evers' decision would hurt Democrats in legislative races.

"It's his decision to make," she said. "It's either gonna be him or it's gonna be someone from that absolutely fabulous bench we have."

Vining said she believed her open support for increasing funding for K-12 education and child care providers will give her an edge over Hutton, whom she accused of being less forthcoming.

"You know what I think on issues, and there are a number of times I hear from constituents," Vining said. "They're frustrated because they don't know where he stands."

Wisconsin GOP Chairman Brian Schimming maintained Democrats were the ones at a disadvantage. He pointed to last month's Marquette Law School poll, which found only 37% of independent voters supporting an Evers re-election bid. 

On top of that, only 36% of voters said they have a favorable view of Democrats compared to 43% who see Republicans favorably.

"Everyday folks on the street are going, they may have decisions to make about other candidates," Schimming said. "But what they know right now is they don't like the Democrats, and that's the problem Democratic candidates are gonna have next year."

Other key races in the Senate include the 17th district in the southwest part of the state, combining parts of Dane County with wide rural swaths. The district is currently represented by State Sen. Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green), co-chair of the Joint Finance Committee.

State Rep. Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon) announced earlier this month she will run in that district, which has a 53.9% Democratic lean, according to Johnson's model.

The 21st district, running from Racine to Franklin and Greendale, is also projected to be extremely competitive. Democrats have not yet rolled out a candidate in that district. 

The Republican incumbent in the 21st, State Sen. Van Wanggaard (R-Racine), has not announced whether he will seek another term. The 21st Senate district has a 51.1% Republican lean.

If Wanggaard's fundraising is any indication, it'll be a wide-open race. According to his campaign's July filing, Wanggaard took in a total of 80 cents during the first six months of 2025. In contrast, Marklein appears ready for a high-profile campaign, collecting more than $67,000 thus far. 

Of the 17 state Senate races in 2026, only one other has a partisan lean of less than 55% one way or the other. The 31st district surrounding Eau Claire has a 53.6% Democratic lean, and it is currently represented by a Democrat, State Sen. Jeff Smith of Brunswick.

Republicans have held both chambers in the Legislature since the red wave election of 2010. Democrats regained hope of a majority last year, when a new liberal majority on the state Supreme Court enacted new maps after striking down Republican-drawn maps the court found to be an extreme gerrymander in the GOP's favor.