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Thunderstorms Return...Some Strong

The next 24 hours will feel more like late spring.  Dewpoints, or the measure of low level moisture in the atmosphere, will rise into the upper 50s by Thursday.  Dare we say it will feel a touch humid?  That extra moisture will help fuel showers and some thunderstorms late Thursday night.

A potent shortwave trough with a bit of a negative tilt will swing through by Friday morning.  Strong south winds at the surface along with west to southwest winds aloft will help to promote wind shear across the area.  Wind shear is the change of wind direction with height, and it's one of the necessary ingredients for strong to severe storms.

While the overall instability remains marginal, we aren't talking about an explosion of storms; however, low cape and shear can still produce isolated strong to severe storms.  Generally speaking, there could be small hail and gusty winds, but these scenarios can produce a brief tornado if the conditions are just right.

In general is looks like the best storms chances will be from 9 pm Thursday night into 4 am on Friday.  Take a look at the picture above.  The SPC has southeastern Wisconsin under a marginal risk for severe storms.  We will continue to watch the forecast for you.

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