'We got our butts kicked': What liberals' landslide SCOWIS win does and doesn't mean for November
MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) -- Tuesday's state Supreme Court race produced an almost unthinkable result: A statewide election in Wisconsin decided by 20 percentage points.
In a state where five of the last seven presidential elections were decided by less than one point, what made Taylor's landslide possible? Results from one county after another tell that story, but one expert cautions those result only mean so much when looking ahead to the November election.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Pool, said his best-case projection for Taylor was a 17-point win.
"I couldn't get my data to go up to [a] 20 percent [margin], no matter how I squeezed it," Franklin said. "I think, there, you're looking at the huge imbalance in resources between the two candidates."
Flip, flip, flip
A common perception of Wisconsin politics is Milwaukee County and Dane County alone drive liberal turnout.
While there's a lot of truth to that, in Tuesday's election, Taylor won 42 of the state's 72 counties.
If you subtracted every single vote Taylor got in Milwaukee and Dane counties, she would've only lost by about 6,000 votes.
In and around southeast Wisconsin, Taylor flipped five counties President Donald Trump won in 2024: Kenosha, Jefferson, Ozaukee, Racine and Sheboygan.
Ironically, Franklin said voters' frustration with Mr. Trump's second term thus far was one of the biggest reasons liberals were much more motivated than conservatives to vote in Tuesday's election.
"Democrats are so unhappy with Donald Trump, that same March [Marquette] poll showed a record low of net approval for Trump," Franklin said. "Fourteen points underwater, the worst of either the first or the second term."
Franklin said if voters remain frustrated with the Trump administration, and the cost of living and Mr. Trump's war on Iran carry into November, those could cause significant headwinds for Wisconsin Republicans.
Another trend worth watching is the ongoing shift in the Milwaukee suburbs. In addition to losing Ozaukee County, Maria Lazar only won about 55% of the vote in Waukesha County.
"Waukesha, which used to routinely produce over 70% vote for Republicans, now it's in the mid to low 50s," Franklin said. "That is now a competitive county instead of a solidly red majority."
Liberals have now won four straight state Supreme Court races and five of the last six. They believe their success in those races is a byproduct of having the right the message.
"Chris Taylor spoke to the people," Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Dallet told CBS 58 Tuesday night. "Her message resonated, and it is about protecting rights and freedoms, and that's what the people are saying right now, that they want a justice to protect those rights and freedoms."
Republican response
The race for governor will headline the November ballot across Wisconsin. At least two congressional races are expected to be competitive, and Democrats will also aim to win a majority in the state Legislature for the first time since 2010.
Congressman Tom Tiffany, the GOP candidate for governor, dismissed the idea Tuesday's results signal Republicans are in trouble this fall.
Tiffany held an event outside the state Capitol to criticize Gov. Tony Evers for vetoing a bill that would've opted Wisconsin into a new federal program that provides tax credits for donations to private school scholarships, which Republicans argue could then be used to also aid public schools.
Reporters asked Tiffany about Tuesday's one-sided results, which saw Taylor even win Vilas County in Tiffany's Northwoods district. Mr. Trump won that county by 23 points in 2024.
"Well, we got our butts kicked last night, right?" Tiffany said. "There's no doubt about it, but the election that's coming up in November is a new election."
Tiffany maintained his campaign was positioned to build momentum over the next seven months. When asked if he believed the state party should consider a change in leadership, including Chairman Brian Schimming, Tiffany said that was for other party leaders to decide.
"I have built a campaign - money, manpower and messaging," Tiffany said. "We're gonna compete on all fronts."
Franklin said he believed one substantial difference will be fundraising.
The level of outside spending in this year's court race was a fraction of what it was in the 2023 and 2025 Supreme Court races, when control of the court was at stake.
Taylor's win gives liberals a 5-2 supermajority, and while her campaign cash was far less than the previous two liberal candidates, it still dwarfed that of Maria Lazar, who hadn't even raised $1 million with one week left before the election.
Franklin said he expects GOP megadonors to be far more active in the fall, bankrolling Tiffany, as well as congressional and legislative candidates.
"You can't win a race if you give up," Franklin said. "And Republican donors gave up on this race."