Mid-Evening Update: Severe storm development could still happen
8:25 PM Update:
The Storm Prediction Center has us now under a slight risk for severe weather for the rest of the evening. It'll be a close call for us. We have a Tornado Watch and Tornado Warnings just to the northwest of us. We are still waiting on a cold front to make its way through the area into the overnight.
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5:45 PM Update:
If storms will fire, they'll do it between now and midnight. We're waiting to see what development happens north and west of the metro. As of now, a Tornado Watch holds north of the region until 11 PM. There's another Tornado Watch until 10 PM into Iowa, but it's been chiseled back a bit. We'll be here throughout the evening watching this situation carefully. The Air Quality Alert will be allowed to expire at 6 PM, but smoke could return overnight. It shouldn't be too thick though.
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3 PM Update:
All quiet on the radar now. Although we've broken into some sunshine this afternoon. This could help with the destabilization into the evening. We have no weather advisories at this time either, but I expect this to change in the next few hours. Stay tuned.
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12:55pm Update:
Our air quality alert has been extended until 6pm with the threat of unhealthy AQI numbers holding through tomorrow morning.
Otherwise, this first round of rain has cleared out and the sunshine is coming! Sun, heat and humidity now will help fuel stronger storms between 4-11pm.
Updated: 10:21 a.m. July 20, 2026
Our first round of showers is currently rolling into southeast Wisconsin. This rain will not be severe and there's not even much of a thunderstorm risk, but some light showers will be possible through the midday hours. Then it looks like we dry out quickly with sunshine returning. The strong storm chance has trended a bit later too so the atmosphere should have plenty of time to destabilize and gives us a pretty good chance for severe storms. The best timing for severe storms is now from 5-10 PM.
Here is a radar image that will update with time:
All severe weather threats are on the table. The Level 3 Enhanced Risk is still in place, but could even be upgraded to a Level 4 Moderate Risk after the Storm Prediction Center sees how the atmosphere reacts following the morning showers. Damaging wind gusts over 70 mph and strong tornadoes are the biggest threats. Some large hail is also possible.
As far as air quality goes, we should see the smoke improve slightly by Monday afternoon to moderate levels. Another round of smoke is still expected Monday night into Tuesday morning with some improvement by Tuesday afternoon. We are still waiting to see what the DNR wants to do with the current Air Quality Alert but there's a pretty good chance they extend it for another 24 hours until Noon on Tuesday.
The rest of the forecast outlined below is on track.
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Posted: 6:03 a.m. July 20, 2026
Wisconsin dealt with waves of wildfire smoke and bad air quality over the weekend. Saturday morning was ok to be outside but that next round of smoke returning Saturday evening and stayed with us for most of Sunday. An air quality alert remains in effect for all of Wisconsin until Noon on Monday.
Wildfire smoke should take a break Monday afternoon and evening but then could return Monday night into Tuesday morning resulting in more bad air quality and potentially another air quality alert. Smoke goes away again Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures won't be too warm to start the new work week with highs in the low to middle 80s Monday and Tuesday. A big drop in temps is on the way for Wednesday. Humidity levels will rise throughout the day Monday and become nearly tropical feeling by Monday evening. Muggy conditions are expected to continue for Tuesday but dew points really drop again for Wednesday becoming comfy.
The higher dew points will add some fuel for thunderstorms Monday. As of Monday morning, we are watching a cluster of strong storms move in from Minnesota. There is some question whether or not those storms actually survive to reach southeast Wisconsin. A few showers, at the very least, will be possible late Monday morning, especially in our NW counties. After a break in storm activity during the early afternoon scattered thunderstorms look more likely.
The best timing for some strong to severe storms will be from 3 PM - 11 PM. Any of the storms during that time period could be strong to severe. A Level 3 Enhanced Risk for severe storms is in place for almost the entire state of Wisconsin. A sliver of Racine and Kenosha Counties is in the Level 2 Slight Risk.
The main threats with any severe storms would be damaging wind, especially with anything in the evening hours that has formed into a cluster or line of storms. Some of the wind gusts could be over 70 mph. A few tornadoes are also possible Monday, mainly with any individual supercells in the late afternoon. Some hail and minor flooding may also be possible.
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