Political expert: Effects of government shutdown may not be immediately felt

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- With a federal government shutdown all but certain, a Marquette political expert says this one is likely to feel different from those in the past.

Both Democrats and Republicans are digging in over fiscal issues, but there's a larger philosophical battle beneath the surface.

Dr. Philip Rocco is the department chair and associate professor in Marquette's political science department. He told us, "The only question is how long it will last."

Rocco says, typically, budget battles are over government funding and the funding bill. But this shutdown is different.

On the surface, it's over health care: Affordable Care Act tax credits are set to expire at the end of the year. Republicans want them to expire; Democrats are fighting to permanently extend them.

If they expire, ACA health insurance premiums are expected to drastically increase. According to health policy researcher KFF, some families of four could see increases of $19,000 a year.

But another battle is raging below.

Rocco said, "The Trump administration has suggested they are going to try to use the opportunity to make huge, what they call 'reductions in force.' Laying people off. Permanently."

According to September's Congressional report, there are 17,946 federal employees in Wisconsin. It's unclear how many will be furloughed.

A White House budget office memo obtained by CNN is threatening mass firings if the government shuts down.

Rocco says it seems one of the administration's goals is to consolidate political control over civil services. "I think that might be one reason why they, too, might be willing to go a little bit longer in the shutdown here, thinking it might advantage them."

The last shutdown happened during President Trump's first term, in 2018 into 2019; it lasted a record 35 days.

Many operations will continue: Social Security checks will keep going out, the US Postal Service will still deliver mail, and the VA will keep providing services.

UW-Madison is providing guidance to researchers whose federal grants may be affected.

In most cases, projects that are already funded will likely continue, but federal agencies may issue stop work orders.

The Wisconsin DPI says funding for local districts in 2025-26 were included in the last federal budget.

And the DPI can pay September claims on school meals but needs more information from the USDA beyond that.

It's hard to know what the tipping point will be because the shutdown's impact may not be felt right away.

Rocco said, "The long-term effects of a government shutdown, given the important role the federal government plays in the economy, could be more significant. But we may not see them right away."

What makes a difference? Rocco says it's not just who feels the pain, but where that pain is concentrated.

Most of Wisconsin's federal employees work for the VA, which will continue services.

But the lawmakers who represent areas that see significant furloughs could be where the pressure to reach a deal is applied.