What do Tuesday's elections signal for Wisconsin? Here are 3 takeaways from the Marquette Law Poll's director

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- As Democrats celebrated a sweep in high-profile races Tuesday night, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll, Charles Franklin, weighed in on what any of the results could mean in our own swing state.

Self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani toppled former Gov. Andrew Cuomo to win the mayor's office in New York City. Democrats also won races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia as Mikie Sherill and Abigail Spanberger won, respectively, in convincing fashion.

Wisconsin voters will select a new governor next November. There are two competitive seats in the U.S. House, currently held by Republican Congressmen Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden. Here are three things to watch, based on a conversation with Franklin Wednesday.

Dems eye control of Legislature

For Franklin, though, the biggest warning sign for Republicans might have been in Virginia's state legislature. Democrats picked up 13 seats, going from a narrow majority of 51-49 to a near supermajority of 64-36. 

Franklin noted Virginia voters include more federal workers that Wisconsin, so elections there are more likely to directly reflect anger over the ongoing government shutdown, as well as the Trump administration's efforts to reduce the number of federal jobs.

Still, he said it's impossible to ignore anger with the federal government having such a substantial impact on state legislative races.

"I wouldn't extrapolate from Virginia to here directly," Franklin said. "But I do think that Virginia outcome has to catch the attention of state legislators."

Franklin said if Democrats keep that momentum, it could be enough to take control of the state Legislature in Wisconsin, where Republicans have held a majority since 2010. 

Based on the projected makeup of legislative districts under new maps ordered by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, Democrats are favored to win control of the Senate. 

The GOP is expected to hold onto the majority in the Assembly, but Franklin Democrats' volume of wins in Virginia could be a sign Democratic gains might exceed expectations next fall.

Demographic realignment

In Wisconsin, one of the biggest shifts last year among voters was President Donald Trump getting more Hispanic support than Republicans typically do. That happened in other states, too. 

Franklin said that's also something to watch closely in 2026, as it had an impact Tuesday night. 

"Hispanic voters, who had shifted significantly to Trump in 2024, shifted back to the Democrats in both New Jersey and in Virginia," Franklin said. "Similar shift back to the Democrats among Asian voters."

In Wisconsin, Democrats could get a significant boost in Hispanic voters in Milwaukee County, and the poorest 20% of voters statewide, swing back to Democrats by a margin more in-line with past elections.

It's (still) all about inflation

The famous campaign phrase, 'It's the economy, stupid,' held true in 2024 as voters in exit polls cited concerns over the cost of living. 

Affordability was at the heart of Mamdani's campaign, as well as the contests in New Jersey and Virginia. Franklin said exit polling from Tuesday showed voters in those states identified the economy as a primary concern.

Voters expressed having similar priorities in the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, which was released last week.

Franklin predicted if the economy remains a primary concern, that will be a boon for Democrats in Wisconsin next fall. However, he noted 12 months is an awfully long time, and it's possible the economy improves by then.

"If inflation goes down, if the economy seems to flatten out," Franklin said. "If some of the most unpopular things, like tariffs, in the Trump administration become less of an issue, then you could really mitigate those pro-Democratic forces we saw this week."