3 key results that explain Janet Protasiewicz's landslide Supreme Court win over Daniel Kelly
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- It's a rare result in Wisconsin statewide elections: a contest decided by 10 or more percentage points. However, that's what happened in Tuesday's election to decide control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.
Liberal Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz, who openly ran as a progressive, opposed to the state's abortion ban and Republican-drawn voting maps, defeated conservative former justice Daniel Kelly. Protasiewicz's margin of victory was more than 200,000 votes as of Wednesday morning.
Kelly also lost by more than 10 points in 2020, when he lost to Jill Karofsky. In that election, there was also a Democratic presidential primary election. There were no other statewide races on the ballot Tuesday.
Looking at how the results shook out, here are five sets of results from across the state illustrating just why the race was so one-sided:
Suburban shift continues
Over the last decade, the Republican strongholds of Ozaukee and Waukesha counties have become a lighter shade of red. Tuesday's result was the most competitive yet, particularly in Ozaukee County.
Just last November, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers lost the northern suburban county 55%-44% to GOP challenger Tim Michels. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson won the county 57%-42% against Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes. In the supreme court race, Protasiewicz only lost by four points, 52%-48%.
In Waukesha County, Kelly received 58% of the vote. In the race for governor last fall, Michels fell just short of 60% in a losing effort while Johnson got 62.5% of the county's vote.
Something to watch in 2024 is whether abortion is an issue that continues to motivate suburban voters in these key counties, or whether there's a larger demographic shift happen that is making this county a little more purple.
'BOW' counties break for Protasiewicz
The suburban Milwaukee trio of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties are known as the 'WOW' counties, but another vitally important set of counties in Northeast Wisconsin played a big role in Protasiewicz winning by such a resounding margin.
The 'BOW' counties of Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago all broke for the liberal candidate. In November, both Michels and Johnson swept the three vote-rich counties, which include Green Bay, Appleton and Oshkosh.
While Johnson won Brown County by nine percentage points, Protasiewicz won by three on Thursday. Michels won Outagamie County by seven points, but Protasiewcz captured the county by three points. Protasiewicz won Winnebago County by eight points, 54%-46%. Last fall, Michels won Winnebago 50%-49% while Johnson carried the county, 53%-47%.
In 2020, former President Donald Trump also swept the 'BOW' counties. The last Democratic or liberal candidates to win all three northeast counties were Karofsky in 2020 and Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2018.
Dane County: Bigger and Bluer
Going into Tuesday, Republican operatives knew Kelly would get crushed in Dane County, the state's liberal bastion. However, they also knew it was important to be relatively competitive in the state's fastest-growing county.
2020 and 2022 offered benchmarks for what they looked like; both Trump and Johnson ran at about 23% in their respective elections. Kelly needed to avoid a repeat of his 2020 shellacking, when he captured less than 19% of the county's vote.
Instead, Kelly once again failed to hit 20% while Protasiewicz amassed 82% of the votes. Even in their statewide victories, neither Biden nor Evers reached the 80% mark in Dane County.
In a display of the county's growing political influence -- especially in off-year elections -- Dane County voters cast about 240,000 ballots. That was about 7,000 more votes than Milwaukee County provided, despite Milwaukee County having about 400,000 more residents per the 2020 census.