Wisconsin's new maps: Which districts will swing control of the Legislature and why future lawsuits are unlikely
MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- With Gov. Tony Evers' signature Monday, legislative elections in Wisconsin took on new meaning. For the first time in more than a decade, Democrats have a reasonable chance of winning a majority in the state Legislature.
Currently, Republicans hold 64 of the Assembly's 99 seats, and they have a supermajority in the Senate with 22 of the 33 seats. Outside analysts have considered the maps one of the county's worst gerrymanders considering four of the last six presidential elections were decided by less than one percentage point in Wisconsin.
With a new liberal majority, the Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down the Legislature's maps in December. After the court's hired experts essentially disqualified the two map submissions from Republicans and conservative groups, the GOP-controlled Legislature last week passed the maps Evers proposed.
Analysis of the four Democratic and liberal map proposals found Evers' map was the friendliest for Republicans; the court experts found Evers' maps had a 2.5% partisan bias in Republicans' favor while the other three had a bias ranging between 2% and 0.4%.
While all but two Democrats in the Legislature voted against Evers' maps in hopes the court would pick a map that was even more favorable, Evers signed his maps into law Monday.
An analysis by John Johnson, a research fellow in the Marquette University Law School, illustrated how much more competitive the landscape has become for Democrats.
"It's really remarkable how much higher the Democratic floor is and lower the Republican ceiling is," Johnson said.
Johnson created models based on 2022 statewide electoral results. They were weighted to take into account how GOP legislative candidates tended to perform better than the Republicans' statewide candidates, including U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson.
Under the old maps, 55 Assembly districts were considered solidly Republican. Nine leaned toward the GOP and one leaned Democratic. 34 districts were solidly in the Democrats' favor.
With Evers' maps, Johnson's modeling rated 46 districts as solidly Republican. Seven districts lean Republican while four lean toward Democrats. 42 districts are labeled solidly Democratic.
According to Johnson's models, six Assembly districts have a partisan lean of less than 53%:
- The 26th District (Sheboygan), 52.1% Dem.
- The 30th District (Hudson), 52.6% Rep.
- The 61st District (Greenfield, Greendale), 50.8% Rep.
- The 85th District (Wausau), 52.6% Rep.
- The 88th District (Green Bay), 52.1% Rep.
- The 89th District (Green Bay), 50.8% Rep.
"Control of the Assembly is genuinely gonna come down to this set of seats that I think both parties will seriously contest and believe they actually have a chance at winning," Johnson said. "And that's just something we haven't experienced in Wisconsin for a long time."
In the Senate, only even-numbered districts are up for re-election this fall. Johnson said while Democrats will likely pick up at least one seat and break the Republican supermajority, there aren't enough competitive districts to put control of the Senate in play this year. However, that could change as soon as 2026.
The old maps featured 20 solidly Republican districts, three that leaned toward the GOP, one leaning toward Democrats and nine that were solidly Democratic. The new maps have just 15 solidly Republican districts. Two lean Republican while six lean Democratic, and 10 districts are solidly Democratic, using Johnson's model.
In the Senate, there are four Senate districts with a lean of 53% of less:
- The 5th District (Brookfield, Pewaukee, Wauwatosa, West Allis), 51.7% Dem.
- The 8th District (Germantown, Menomonee Falls, Mequon, Port Washington), 53% Rep.
- The 21st District (Franklin, Greenfield, Greendale, Racine), 51.1% Rep.
- The 30th District (Green Bay), 52.6% Dem.
Could another lawsuit overturn these maps? Probably not, says conservative lawyer
Not every Democrat was in a celebratory mood Monday. State Rep. LaKeshia Myers (D-Milwaukee) questioned in a statement whether the new maps violate the Voting Rights Act (VRA).
Myers pointed to the 4th Senate District and expressed concern voters of color on Milwaukee's northwest side might have their voices diluted in a district that also includes suburban Glendale and Shorewood.
"I think we have to be real about where BIPOC people live and how we are concentrated in the state," Myers said in an interview Monday evening.
In 2022, the Wisconsin Supreme Court initially picked Evers' maps, but the U.S. Supreme Court overturned that decision, finding Evers' map violated the VRA by leaving one fewer majority-Black district in the Assembly.
This time around, however, none of the parties messed with districts that include Milwaukee. The 4th Senate District is untouched under both Evers and Legislative Republicans' maps. Myers acknowledged she wasn't sure whether a lawsuit under the VRA would have much merit given the circumstances.
"I don't know, and that's the honest answer," Myers said. "I don't know from any perspective or vantage point, what a legal challenge would look like, but I will say that I think there is still room for our Supreme Court to look at this particular issue."
Rick Esenberg, president of the Wisconsin Institute for Law & Liberty, which submitted the other conservative map, said he would not endorse the idea of a lawsuit challenging the maps. At the same time, Esenberg did not rule out WILL filing a future lawsuit.
"If somebody came to us and said, 'Gee, here's a theory that you could proceed on,' and we think that it would advance our mission, we would consider that," he said. "But right now? No, I don't think- we don't have any plans to file another lawsuit, and my guess is, if I had to guess, I don't think anybody else will either."
What's another big difference between Gov. Evers signing his maps today vs. letting SCOWIS pick one?
— A.J. Bayatpour (@AJBayatpour) February 20, 2024
WILL's Rick Esenberg says even if conservatives retake the court, it's less likely SCOWIS would undo maps passed by the Legislature and signed by the guv vs. a court-adopted map pic.twitter.com/9MhN5UVYVq
One key reason Esenberg said he expects the Evers maps to remain in place until the next U.S. Census is because how the governor's maps were adopted. He said a court would be less likely to strike down maps passed in the manner prescribed by the state constitution: Adopted by the Legislature, then signed by the governor.
While nothing is ever completely off the table, especially in Wisconsin, Esenberg said he expected a court to be far more willing to undo a previous judicial ruling than to overturn a combined action by the state's legislative and executive branches.
"Lawyers are creative, and you never know what's gonna happen, but I think the fact that this was enacted by the Legislature makes it much more unlikely that it would someday be undone by a court," Esenberg said. "The likelihood, I think, is these will be the maps until they have to be redrawn after the 2030 Census."