Strong/Severe Storms on Sunday

Most of us have been enjoying some warm weather the past few days, but as we all know that comes with a chance for storms this time of year. That chance will become a bit more elevated on Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has placed Milwaukee in a \"slight\" risk for severe weather and an \"enhanced\" risk clips some of our western counties stretching westward into Minnesota & Iowa.

These storms are associated with a fairly large low pressure to our west which will spin some upper level disturbances our way on Sunday. Thunderstorms need four main ingredients to become severe: Instability, spin (known as shear to meteorologists), moisture (high dew points/humidity), and a source of lift. In southeast Wisconsin tomorrow, a warm and humid airmass will be in place giving us enough instability and moisture, and spin will be present thanks to winds moving in different directions in different levels of the atmosphere. The main question is a source of lift. That source of lift will come from upper level disturbances (what meteorologists call short waves) moving our way. The stronger disturbances will stay off to our north and west (closer to the center of the low pressure) hence the enhanced risk in this area, but some impulses may travel their way into southeastern Wisconsin.

It is fairly likely that storms will form at some point during the afternoon/evening in the Milwaukee area. Weather models have been fairly consistent with a storm window of Noon - 8 PM with the best chance for stronger storms centered around 3 PM.

If strong storms form in our area the biggest threats would be damaging wind and large hail. Since there is a good amount of spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out, but that chance is higher in the enhanced risk area. Thunderstorms will likely bring heavy downpours, but widespread heavy rain and flooding is not expected.

When severe weather is possible it is always wise to know your plan. Download the First Alert Weather App and stay with CBS58 and your First Alert Weather Team on-air and online all day tomorrow.