MADISON (CBS 58) — A new poll released this week shows the Democratic candidate for governor, David Crowley, is leading Republican Tom Tiffany.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said this poll is fairly accurate, mainly because YouGov is the company that conducted it.
“It’s widely recognized as the best in the business that does nonrandom samples, that is, volunteers who agree to do polls, but YouGov has developed the best statistical methodology for doing that and making it work well,” Franklin said.
This poll was commissioned by City Forward Collective. YouGov conducted it online. The survey included 2,000 Wisconsin adults, with 1,715 respondents included in the gubernatorial vote question. Of those respondents, 46% support Crowley, 42% support Tiffany, 9% are unsure and 2% say they do not plan to vote.
“If you go and look at the relatively small handful of polls we have here since the primary, across all of those polls, we see a range from a Crowley lead of about three points to about five points,” Franklin said.
As for why Crowley is leading, Franklin says it has to do with party loyalty. At the end of the day, independents and moderates will ultimately determine who wins. He says that voting bloc typically isn’t as engaged until about a week before the general election.
“We don’t know very much about how they are changing or how they might be changing, and really only late in the campaign are likely to have fully made up their mind,” Franklin said.
City Forward Collective says it has been doing this polling since 2022. It also polled 1,038 Milwaukee voters about closing or consolidating Milwaukee Public Schools that are under-enrolled.
Nearly two-thirds, 61%, believe MPS's financial issues are serious enough to require school closures or consolidation, and support grows to 71% after voters hear arguments for and against the idea.
The survey also found voters would rather see MPS close schools, 37%, or cut administrative costs, 28%, before asking taxpayers for more money, with 49% opposing another property tax referendum and only 37% supporting one.
At the same time, voters expressed significant distrust in MPS leadership, with just 13% saying they trust the School Board to decide which schools should close and only 22% holding a favorable opinion of the board overall.
MPS sent the following statement:
Milwaukee Public Schools is actively engaged in a process with the community that will develop criteria for school closures, recommend specific schools for closure, recommend new construction to be planned, develop a community engagement plan, and address other key facilities issues.
If you need additional information about meeting information or dates, you can read more about the Great Schools Committee and meetings on our website.
We reached out to both gubernatorial candidates to get their take on the polling, and each sent the following statements.
“My focus is on the challenges facing Wisconsin families: rising costs, public safety, and better educational outcomes for students and taxpayers. David Crowley has been a Milwaukee politician for nearly a decade, and the problems at Milwaukee Public Schools have persisted throughout his time in office. The status quo is not working, and every child deserves a quality education, regardless of their ZIP code. As governor, I will consider every option, including consolidating under-enrolled MPS schools facing teacher shortages where appropriate, restoring honest academic standards, and improving reading and math proficiency. Milwaukee Public Schools spends nearly $24,000 per student annually. Teachers deserve safe classrooms, students deserve a quality education, and parents and taxpayers deserve better results from that investment,” said Tom Tiffany.
“The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, and with just over two weeks to go and early voting starting Tuesday, this campaign is all gas, no brakes. We aren’t taking a single moment for granted, especially when three billionaires are trying to buy the election for MAGA Congressman Tom Tiffany. We’re going to make sure every Wisconsinite knows that David Crowley will always fight for Wisconsin, while Tom Tiffany will work for Trump, and we aren’t going to let up until the last vote is cast.” — Alexandra Gross, press secretary for David Crowley
For more details on the polling about MPS, click here. For more details on the polling surrounding the governor's race, click here.