NOAA winter outlook released as October continues to stay mild

October in Milwaukee and southeast Wisconsin has been pretty mild so far. The average temperature through the 21st is 59 degrees which is the 13th warmest start to the month on record. 

And the warmth continues! Highs through the weekend are expected to be well above average in at least the mid to upper 60s and potentially well into the 70s on Sunday. A big drop in temps is coming for the beginning of next week when a cold front returns temps to more average numbers in the 50s. 

Wednesday saw highs reaching the 70s for almost all of southeast Wisconsin. Today, October 22nd, is the average date for the last high in the 70s in Milwaukee. But we have a good chance of seeing it later than average this weekend. This would continue a trend we saw for our last 90s and 80s which both came later than average.

The latest temp trend through the end of October, and therefore Halloween, overall sees the mild temperatures continue. Most of the country, including the Midwest, is expected to be above average. Wisconsin has a 40-50% chance for above average temps. When averages are closer to the upper 50s we could be near 60. 

As we head deeper into the fall months, it's also time to take a peek at winter. The NOAA official winter outlook for the months of December, January and February is out. With an El Niño expected to continue, temperatures for most of the northern part of the country and are expected to be very mild. 

When it comes to precipitation, there's not as much correlation to the El Niño. Southeast Wisconsin has equal chances for both wetter and drier winter months. Northeast Wisconsin into northern Michigan has a slightly better chance to see a drier winter. Most of the southern US and especially the southeast states looks much wetter than normal.

Download the CBS 58 Weather app to track the temps and precipitation levels heading into the winter months.