New Marquette Poll shows Wisconsin governor's race is tight, but gives Crowley a slight lead

MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- The first Marquette Law School Poll since the primary is here, and it’s anyone's race.

The poll shows Democratic candidate David Crowley with a five-point lead among likely voters, 49% to 44%, with 7% undecided. However, among all registered voters, Republican candidate for governor Tom Tiffany and Crowley each have 44%, with 12% of voters still undecided.

This survey was carried out from Aug. 12 through Aug. 20, interviewing 891 Wisconsin registered voters with a 4% plus or minus margin of error. Poll Director Charles Franklin explained why Crowley is leading among likely voters compared to registered voters.

“It’s fundamentally two things. One is turnout -- Democrats are little more likely turnout than Republicans, but not very much, just two points more,” Franklin said. “But among likely voters, Democrats are a little more united behind their party, voting 98% for Crowley, whereas among registered voters, it's a little bit less.”

The poll also showed Crowley has an advantage among independent voters. Likely independent voters prefer Crowley by 55%, to 16% for Tiffany. Among all registered voters, Crowley leads among independents 35% to 18% for Tiffany, but that could change.

“We also saw in this poll that independents are especially undecided, and among registered voters, very undecided, so there is still a good bit of room for movement among independents,” Franklin said.

This poll also asked voters what the most important issues were to them, and it comes as no surprise that it's inflation and the cost of living, with 43% saying it is most important to them.

“The question will be can either of the candidates credibly claim to address those concerns and propose some policies that voters would find responsive to their big economic concerns,” Franklin said.

Some interesting data about inflation, too. A large majority, 69%, think inflation will increase over the next 12 months. Just 9% think it will decrease, and 21% think it will remain the same. Republicans are more optimistic than independents or Democrats, but even 43% of Republicans think inflation will rise, with only 19% saying it will decline.

Another issue that has united people across the aisle is data centers, with 78% of voters saying the costs outweigh the benefits of building them. So, another policy issue voters are clearly eager to hear from these candidates about.

To read the entire breakdown of the poll, click here.