Is a GOP-veto proof majority possible this election cycle? Experts weigh in
MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) -- This election cycle voters are keeping close tabs on the governor and Senate race, but down the ballot there's also a lot at play.
Republicans in the state Legislature might be on the verge of gaining a veto-proof majority, which means they could bypass a governor's veto to enact any laws they'd like.
Over the last four years, Democratic Governor Tony Evers has played as a check against the GOP-controlled Legislature. He's vetoed a record-setting 146 bills Republicans sent him that aim to overhaul elections, limit unemployment benefits and expand the school choice program.
"I think quite a few voters don't know what's at stake here," said David Canon, political science professor at UW-Madison. "It would be a huge deal if the Republicans were to gain a supermajority, which means they can pass legislation without the governor's support."
Currently, Republicans hold 61 of the Assembly’s 99 seats and 21 of the Senate’s 33 seats. In order to gain a supermajority, Republicans need to pick up one seat in the Senate and five in the Assembly.
John Johnson, research fellow in the Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education at Marquette Law School, predicts the chances of Republicans winning a veto-proof majority in the Senate is likely, but in the Assembly, he believes it would be a much harder lift.
"There's this set of competitive races that Republicans hope to win and then they need to win one more of these districts that lean more firmly towards the Democrats, which will be harder for them to do that," said Johnson.
If Republicans do succeed in winning two-thirds majority in both chambers, Johnson notes the chances of Evers winning reelection are slim, making it moot. That's because if Republicans do pick up all six seats, it would likely result in a ripple effect statewide.
"It's super hard to imagine an election where Republicans win 66 Assembly seats and that does not also equal them winning the governor's race," said Johnson.
Vulnerable Districts
Jeff Smith (D-Brunswick), who represents the 31st Senate district, faces Republican Dave Estenson. It's a district that recently shifted to a Republican 2-point advantage under the new maps enacted this year.
In April, the Wisconsin Supreme Court denied district maps drawn by Gov. Evers and implemented ones proposed by Republicans, which reshaped legislative districts to give them an advantage to flip more seats compared to the previous boundaries.
Johnson and Canon agree it's likely Republicans will win the 31st Senate seat.
Republicans are also likely to win Rep. Sara Rodriguez (D-Brookfield) seat, which is now in play because she's running for lieutenant governor with Evers. The district now leans 16 points in Republicans' favor under the new maps.
Other districts that could be vulnerable to GOP gains include:
-94th Assembly District held by incumbent Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska)
-54th Assembly District, open seat with Rep. Gordon (D-Oshkosh) not seeking reelection
-74th Assembly District, open seat with Rep. Beth Meyers (D-Bayfield) not seeking reelection
-73rd Assembly District held by incumbent Rep. Nick Milroy (D-South Range)
-71st Assembly District held by incumbent Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point)