By Edward-Isaac Dovere

(CNN) — For all their disagreements, sources in both leading New York City mayoral primary campaigns tell CNN their assessment going into Election Day is the same: jump ball.

Technically, there are 11 candidates on Tuesday’s ballot. But the final weeks of the Democratic race have revolved around Andrew Cuomo, who resigned as New York governor in 2021, and Zohran Mamdani, an assemblyman and democratic socialist who has been in government for less than five years.

Who wins may come down to which candidate more voters find completely, absolutely unacceptable. Cuomo still faces skepticism over the issues that led him to quit as governor – sexual harassment allegations he has denied and his handling of Covid-19 – while Mamdani’s critics call out his thin government experience and question his past statements on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The primary’s ranked-choice voting system could mean we don’t know a winner until at least next week.

Perhaps the most unpredictable factor: Election Day will take place under an oppressive heat dome that settled in over the East Coast at the beginning of the week, with stay-inside advisories potentially depressing turnout among voters Tuesday and amplifying the importance of those New Yorkers who voted early.

Here’s what to watch Tuesday night as New York Democrats make their picks for mayor and other offices:

Cuomo’s case: A strong and competent hand

Cuomo has been running on his experience getting bills and projects passed. It didn’t take His endorsement by his old boss Bill Clinton on Sunday made clear that he’s positioning his campaign in part as the bulwark to the leftward, democratic socialist swing within parts of the Democratic Party.

The party “has been taken over by this far-left socialist mentality: dismantle the police, abolish the jail system, legalize prostitution, invest all the money in education—because if people have an education, nobody will commit a crime. What a beautiful concept. I think the Marx Brothers talked about that. It was called utopia. You know, it’s a nice concept, but it has nothing to do with reality, right?” Cuomo said at a campaign event on Sunday. “What has the Democratic Party produced for anybody recently? What has it done for the people in this city? The city’s going backwards. What did it do for the country? The country’s been going backwards. And that’s the problem with the Democratic Party.”

New York City has been facing several overlapping crises in the years since coming out of the pandemic. Together, those crises have created a sense for some that the city is out of control and not a place they either want to or can live anymore. Cuomo has campaigned as the strong, competent hand that New York needs to change that.

Rep. Gregory Meeks, a Queens congressman who has endorsed Cuomo, told CNN he’s hoping that national leaders take note of the issues Cuomo is focused on and the kind of coalition he is building, saying the campaign “helps us as we’re getting ready for the struggles and battles in 2026 to regain the House.”

Talk of who could stand up to President Donald Trump has been a major factor in the race in a city that showed both a significant increase in support for the Republican in the 2024 election. New York has been struggling with the massive influx of migrants that occurred during the previous administration of President Joe Biden. It’s also being targeted by Trump administration officials for more crackdowns.

“I do not support Mr. Cuomo,” Jennifer Browne, one city voter, told CNN. “I take care of my elderly mom who has Alzheimer’s and I’m very distressed by the way the whole nursing home issue and I believe he’s a sexual harasser and women will not be protected under him.”

Other voters pushed back on exactly those issues, saying they are ready to forgive Cuomo and in fact look fondly toward him because of how well they remember him managing the pandemic.

Mamdani’s case: A new way of thinking

Mamdani has been talking up the need to turn the page to a new generation of politics while pitching an array of ideas to deal with the city’s affordability crisis that range from rent freezes to city-owned and operated grocery stores.

The 33-year-old, three-term assemblyman has caught fire in large part from disaffection, particularly among younger voters, with what the Democratic Party has been and how the 67-year-old Cuomo can seem like a walking metaphor for what they are trying to leave behind.

Mamdani has said his lack of experience is a virtue both in making him free of scandals and in opening him up to new ways of thinking about what government can and should do. While Cuomo talks about the need for effective compromise, Mamdani said his uncompromising approach is precisely what New Yorkers want.

“So much of what he celebrates as his record are the things that he worked his hardest to water down when he was actually in power,” Mamdani said. “An idea is only as good as its implementation. And these ideas we have put forward of freezing the rent and making buses fast and free, delivering universal childcare, we put them forward because we’re confident we can deliver them.”

Mamdani drew adamant opposition from some Democrats due to his socialist proposals and anger over his positions related to antisemitism and support for Israel. Mamdani refused to say he believed Israel had the right to exist as a Jewish state or condemn the phrase “globalize the intifada,” referencing an Arabic term used by Palestinians to describe their uprising against Israel. Cuomo repeatedly accused Mamdani of fueling antisemitic hate, a charge Mamdani denied.

Why we may not have a winner on Tuesday

This is the second mayoral primary election in New York City that will use a ranked-choice system, allowing voters to pick their five top candidates, and then having their votes reallocated to the leading candidates over multiple rounds. In 2021, though current Mayor Eric Adams stayed in first place through all seven rounds, he won in the end by just 7,000 votes.

All the candidates are bracing for an extended wait. Some have been running strategies geared toward the peculiarities of this kind of election: Mamdani and city Comptroller Brad Lander cross-endorsed each other, for example, each urging their supporters to rank the other second. Other groups have been pushing a “Don’t Rank Cuomo” effort.

How this, or voters who still don’t understand the ranked system and pick only one candidate or those who may rank Cuomo as their only second choice because they know his name, will work out in the math is impossible to predict.

If no candidate wins a majority of the first-choice votes, it’ll be a week before the New York City Board of Elections releases a first look at the ranked-choice results on July 1. And that’s assuming the board won’t have another round of problems that they are infamous for. Or that there aren’t legal challenges brought on by other problems.

The heat will very much be on

Primary day is going to be the hottest day of the year so far, with temperatures expected to go over 100 degrees Fahrenheit.

That may keep older voters home, potentially hurting Cuomo, but it could also complicated organizing for less-involved voters, which could hurt Mamdani and the other candidates.

Last week, the New York City Board of Elections announced that it would be distributing fans and water to polling sites without air conditioning.

Multiple campaigns have already voiced their concerns about how the heat is going to be handled and how it may affect the results. And it may not just be about the voters who do or don’t turn out: if polling sites are not able to operate properly of voting machines break down in the heat, legal challenges are expected.

The primary winner isn’t a lock to become mayor

Known as a heavily Democratic city, New York has actually elected a Republican in five of its last eight mayoral elections – two times for Rudy Giuliani and three times for Mike Bloomberg, who had re-registered as an independent by his last race but appeared as the Republican candidate and has since become a Democrat again. (He’s endorsed and donated to Cuomo.)

Cuomo is looking at staying in on his own ballot line if he doesn’t win on Tuesday. And the Working Families Party has its own ballot line and is expected to give it to Mamdani if he doesn’t become the Democratic nominee.

The Democratic primary winner will face Adams, the incumbent mayor who opted out of this year’s primary four years after winning it and being hailed as a national leader for Democrats. Adams was indicted last year on charges that he accepted improper gifts and favors, a case that was dismissed by the Trump administration.

There will also be a Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa.

Unlike in the primary, there is no ranked-choice voting in November. Whoever wins the most votes outright will become mayor.

The-CNN-Wire
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