Some strong storms possible Wednesday

It’s spring and the weather always gets interesting when we bring moisture and warmer air.  Temperatures on your Wednesday will drive into the 60s and 70s around much of southeastern Wisconsin.  With a potent storm system along a cold front, showers and thunderstorms will fire up.  These storms will likely come in two rounds; the first round will move in during the morning hours, and if any sunshine breaks out, round two of thunderstorms could turn strong.  The Storm Prediction Center has the area under a marginal risk of severe weather. 

So, why is there a chance for severe weather tomorrow? Let’s talk about this in more detail. There are dynamics meteorologists look for when tracking thunderstorms.  The major mechanics to generate thunderstorms are: moisture, lift, instability, and wind shear.  The moisture part of the equation isn’t great for this system, especially comparing it to areas south.  A cold front will have plenty of energy along to spark those thunderstorms, and this should bring us shear, or the change of wind direction with speed or height.   Lastly, and a lot of times in Wisconsin a key part, is the instability.  Without sunshine and a difference in temperatures at the surface or aloft, it’s a challenge to create buoyancy to flare up showers and thunderstorms, especially the strong ones.

The best ingredients are south of us, but there remains a chance for those thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.  If we break into sunshine, and our temperatures track back into the 70s, a few locations will have a chance for those stronger storms.  The Ready Weather team will be watching this closely!