Recounts rarely change election outcomes, even in closely divided states

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MADISON, Wis. (CBS 58) -- In a state that's evenly divided, it's not unusual to have close elections where officials are asked to recount the votes. However, it's rare that recounts change election outcomes.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde has refused to concede in his narrow defeat to Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin and left open the possibility of requesting a recount.

Hovde is eligible for a recount after losing by fewer than 30,000 votes or 0.9% to Baldwin, according to unofficial results. If Hovde asks election officials to recount the votes, he would have to pay for it.

Recounts can cost millions and when the margin is larger than a couple hundred votes, it's unlikely to change the winner.

"We've studied election recounts over the last 24 years, and we have never seen a recount change the outcome when the margin is this large," Deb Otis, director of Research and Policy at FairVote, said about Hovde's narrow defeat.

Otis and her team have examined statewide recounts since the infamous Florida recount in 2000. That's when Republican George W. Bush won the presidency after holding onto his lead over Democrat Al Gore.

Since 2000, there's been 36 recounts and only three of those have changed the outcome, according to a report by FairVote.

"Election recounts tend to shift only a small number of votes because our election tabulation is generally getting it right the first time," Otis said.

Former President Donald Trump paid $3 million for recounts in Dane and Milwaukee counties in 2020 after his narrow defeat to Joe Biden. In the end, the results shifted fewer than 200 votes confirming Biden's victory.

Hovde has until next week to request a recount. Counties have until Tuesday to turn in their final canvassing reports to the Wisconsin Elections Commission. If those are turned in prior to that, Hovde then has three days from that date to request a recount.

All but three counties, Milwaukee, Waukesha and Juneau have turned in their canvassing reports as of Thursday morning, WEC said.

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