MILWAUKEE (CBS 58) -- In a champagne-soaked clubhouse on Sunday, Milwaukee Brewers Manager Pat Murphy summed up the 2025 season in a way only he could:
“The little things make the difference and you son of a guns did the little things over and over when no one, no one said the Milwaukee Brewers would be in the running to win the division. Not only did you win the division, you crushed it.”
But was he right that “no one” had the Brewers in the race? Here’s a look back at what national outlets predicted back in March.
ESPN’s Opening Day season preview projected Milwaukee around .500 — about 80–82 wins, with 28.9% playoff odds and just 0.5% World Series odds. The analysis had them as a mid-pack team, not a favorite.
When CBS Sports asked six writers to pick division winners, the Cubs were unanimous. Milwaukee was slotted mostly second, but never first.
2025 MLB standings predictions: Expert picks for every division, full projections as baseball season begins - CBSSports.com
MLB.com’s staff poll called the NL Central the closest vote of any division — but the Cubs edged the Brewers. Another preseason preview on the same site flat-out picked Milwaukee, though it admitted Chicago was the “popular” choice.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system pegged Milwaukee at 80–82 wins and about 23% playoff odds, again trailing Chicago. Brewers blog Brew Crew Ball published those projections as the model went public.
So, while a handful of analysts did put Milwaukee on top, the overwhelming consensus was that the Cubs would win the Central. Hard to fault Murphy for declaring to his team that they defied the odds for their seventh trip to the postseason in the last eight seasons.