More Extreme Weather Means Greater Demand for Longer Term Forecasting
The weather seems to be getting crazier and crazier, certainly with more extremes. So as a result, scientists are now looking to medium-range forecasting, predicting high-impact events one to two weeks in advance. In fact this type of forecasting is happening world wide. The World Meteorological Organization has just launched its \"High Impact Weather Project.\" This is a 10-year, multi-national mission. One big goal is to create accurate predictions, up to two weeks in advance, for weather causing urban floods, severe winter storms, fires, and winds.
In the U.S., the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is undergoing a major supercomputer upgrade. This is allowing for a major overhaul to its outdated Global Forecasting System, or GFS. The GFS actually performed fairly well during the last big winter storm to hit the Northeast unlike what happened during Superstorm Sandy in 2012.
NOAA's also launched \"High-Impact Weather Prediction Project\" designed to boost its model resolution for a longer view. This means more intense and updated modeling and computer power. Hopefully the payoff will big in terms of prediction and perhaps saving property and lives.